The UK is battling record flu hospitalizations as an unusually early winter surge overwhelms hospitals, with England recording 1,717 daily admissions last week – the highest for this time of year. But experts are urging calm, insisting the outbreak is not more dangerous than previous seasons, just arriving earlier and catching more people unvaccinated.
The reassurance comes as Scotland's NHS faces warnings of potential "black alert" scenarios, where wards are full, emergency departments are backed up, and ambulance services struggle to meet demand. Medical professionals across both nations are calling for urgent government support to prevent what one called a "disastrous" winter.
Professor Ed Hutchinson, a virologist at the University of Glasgow, said: «So far there isn't any evidence that this season's [flu] is more dangerous than it normally would be if you get it. It's just that there are more cases than normal for this time of year.»
Record numbers strain health services
The scale of the outbreak is unprecedented for December. England's flu hospitalizations are over 50 percent higher than the same period last year and tenfold higher than in 2023. Scotland has seen inpatient cases jump 24 percent in a single week to 2,331, with hospital admissions rising 15 percent to 986.
In NHS Grampian, flu hospitalizations more than doubled in one week. The Royal Aberdeen Children's Hospital is recording its highest flu admissions on record. Several Scottish health boards saw laboratory-confirmed influenza activity surge from "medium" to "high" level, while Shetland and Tayside leapt from low to high within seven days.
The dominant strain is a "drifted" H3N2 subclade K variant with seven mutations in a key protein – almost double the typical three or four mutations between winters. Initial concerns about vaccine effectiveness against this new version have been largely dismissed.
Vaccine still works despite mutations
Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, consultant epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency, said: «These results provide reassuring evidence that this season's flu vaccines offer important protection to children and adults, despite concerns about the new subclade.»
The vaccine is reducing hospital attendance by 70 to 75 percent in children and 30 to 40 percent in adults. Over 1.8 million people have been vaccinated in England this season, though NHS leaders stress many eligible vulnerable people have not yet come forward.
Dr Chris Streather, Chief Medical Director for the NHS in London, told the Manchester Evening News: «While we've vaccinated over 1.8 million people this season, there are still vulnerable people who haven't come forward. If you're in one of the eligible groups and you haven't had your flu vaccine yet, I urge you to come forward as soon as possible – it's never too late.»
Scotland braces for breaking point
The pressure is particularly acute in Scotland, where medical staff warn the system could reach breaking point. Dr Chris Williams, vice chair of the Royal College of General Practitioners Scotland, said: «I think we can easily anticipate what we call 'black alert' in parts of the country, where the capacity is used up, wards are full, accident and emergency [departments] are backed up, and potentially, where the ambulance service isn't easily able to meet increased emergency demand.»
Dr Fiona Hunter, vice-president for Scotland of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, told Scotland on Sunday that summer was "extremely challenging" due to delayed discharges keeping emergency departments busy. She said: «As we feared, winter is here and these issues were not addressed in time. An earlier than usual spike in flu cases has piled on the pressure when we already had so little capacity to spare.»
The Scottish Government has announced over £220 million in investment to improve capacity, including £20 million specifically for social care and A&E pressure. More than 290 new frontline ambulance staff are being recruited. A spokesperson said the latest data shows 97 percent of all hospital discharges happen without delay.
But nursing leaders have dismissed this as insufficient. Eileen McKenna, associate director at RCN Scotland, told Scotland on Sunday the response was «too little too late» and criticized the lack of long-term planning. She added: «The current situation demonstrates a failure to learn the lessons from the pandemic. Yet again we have entered winter, without the necessary planning and the right number of staff in post.»
Avoiding fear messaging
Health experts are also cautioning against overhyping the outbreak's severity. Dr Simon Williams from Swansea University warned: «There is danger to saying this is different, this is the worst year ever.» He noted that "fear messaging" can be counterproductive, leading people to assume authorities are exaggerating.
East Asian countries that recently concluded their flu surges have not experienced unusually high disease severity from the H3N2 variant, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
The NHS recommends eligible groups get vaccinated immediately, wear masks when symptomatic in public spaces, practice regular hand hygiene, and rest at home with adequate fluids. Those in at-risk groups or with persistent symptoms should contact NHS 111 or arrange an urgent GP appointment.
Dr Streather told the Manchester Evening News: «The NHS has prepared earlier for winter than ever before, but despite this, we know that surging flu cases, coinciding with industrial action by resident doctors, will put pressure on services in the coming weeks.»
Note: This article was created with Artificial Intelligence (AI).
