Starmer admits crisis after Labour crashes to third in Wales

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer sits with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky facing a screen with other participants joining by video link during a meeting of the ‘coalition of the willing’ allies, at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in Westminster, London. The UK and France have led efforts to bring together countries willing to provide security for Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed. Picture date: Friday October 24, 2025. Henry Nicholls

Sir Keir Starmer (Labour) acknowledged he was "deeply disappointed" by Labour's crushing defeat in the Welsh Parliament by-election and conceded his party "clearly need to do much more". When pressed about potentially resigning if Labour's fortunes don't improve by May's Senedd elections, the Prime Minister avoided a direct answer but emphasised the need to "reflect and regroup and double down on delivery in Wales".

The Prime Minister confirmed he had spoken with Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan following the devastating result that saw Labour relegated to third place in what had been a party stronghold for nearly a century. Starmer stressed that both UK and Welsh administrations must work harder to deliver for Welsh voters.

Historic stronghold crumbles

Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle secured a commanding victory with 15,961 votes, representing more than 47% of the total and marking an increase of almost 19% from the 2021 constituency result. The result delivered a seismic shock in an area that had remained loyal to Labour for the past century.

Reform candidate Llyr Powell achieved a dramatic surge to second place with 12,113 votes, compared to just 495 four years earlier. Labour's Richard Tunnicliffe managed only 3,713 votes, a steep decline from 13,289 in 2021 despite lower turnout that year.

Conservative candidate Gareth Potter received just 690 votes, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats secured 516 and 497 votes respectively. Polling expert Sir John Curtice warned the outcome demonstrated Labour was in "severe trouble" in Wales ahead of May's challenging Senedd election.

Budget crisis looms

The timing proves particularly problematic as the Welsh Government faces an upcoming budget vote that had already caused anxiety for the Labour administration. Labour lacks a majority in the Senedd and previously required opposition support to pass its March budget by the narrowest of margins.

Losing the Caerphilly seat makes the next budget vote even more precarious for the governing party. Curtice suggested May's Senedd election could see Labour lose power in Wales for the first time since devolution in 1999.

Leaders claim victory and defeat

Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan described the by-election as conducted under "the toughest conditions" amid "difficult headwinds nationally", promising to learn lessons and "come back stronger". Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth celebrated the result as proof his party had become the "real choice" for Wales.

Ap Iorwerth declared that Caerphilly voters had chosen "hope over division and progress over the tired status quo" by backing Plaid's vision. He proclaimed: "This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative. We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone."

Sources used: "PA Media" Note: This article has been created with Artificial Intelligence (AI).